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Risk/reward calculator: ratio, R-multiples and the win rate you need.
Enter an entry, a stop and a target. Get the risk-to-reward ratio, the break-even win rate that ratio demands, the expectancy at your own win rate, and — if you add an exit — the trade's honest R-multiple against the stop you entered with.
Prices in any unit — points, pips, dollars — as long as all three use the same one. The side (long or short) is read from where the stop sits.
Side
Long
1R (risk per unit)
4.000
Reward per unit
10.000
Risk : reward
1 : 2.50
Break-even win rate
28.6%
Win less often than this at this ratio and the setup loses money before costs.
Expectancy at 45% win rate
+0.57R / trade
(win rate × ratio) − (1 − win rate) × 1
How it's computed
The arithmetic, in the open.
1R is the distance from your entry to your initial stop — the amount you agreed to lose. The reward is the distance from entry to target. The ratio is reward ÷ risk, so a 4-point stop and a 10-point target is 1 : 2.5.
The break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + ratio). At 1 : 2.5 it is 28.6%: win less often than that at this ratio and the setup loses money before costs. This is why a ratio means nothing on its own — it is one half of an equation whose other half is the win rate you can actually achieve on the setup.
Expectancy at a win rate is (win rate × ratio) − (1 − win rate) × 1, in R per trade. It is the number that says whether a setup is worth taking; our guide on risk/reward and R-multiples goes through it with worked examples.
The R of an exit is (exit − entry) ÷ risk, signed by side. It is measured against the initial stop on purpose: the stop you moved later changed the outcome, not the risk you accepted when you entered.
Questions, answered
- What is a good risk/reward ratio?
- There is no universally good ratio — only a good combination of ratio and win rate. 1:2 breaks even at a 33% win rate, 1:1 at 50%, 1:3 at 25%. The right ratio for a setup is whatever your journal shows you can actually achieve at a win rate that leaves positive expectancy.
- How is the break-even win rate calculated?
- 1 ÷ (1 + ratio). At 1:2.5 that is 1 ÷ 3.5 = 28.6%: win more often than that and the setup makes money before costs; less often and it loses.
- What does expectancy mean here?
- The average result per trade in R at the win rate you entered: (win rate × ratio) − (1 − win rate). +0.28R means that, over many trades, each one is worth 0.28 times your risk on average.
- Why measure the exit in R against the original stop?
- Because the original stop defines the risk you agreed to. Moving the stop changes the trade's outcome, not the risk you took entering it. R against the initial stop is the honest measure of the decision.
- Does this account for spread and commissions?
- No — it is the raw arithmetic of the levels you enter. Spread widens the effective stop and narrows the effective target; a serious simulation applies a spread buffer, which Sage's R:R simulator does on your real trades.
Keep going
- GuideRisk/reward ratio and R-multiples, explainedWhat a risk-to-reward ratio really tells you, how R-multiples make every trade comparable, the break-even win rate for any ratio, and why 'would 3R have paid?' needs the real price path to answer.
- Free toolPosition size calculatorSize a trade from the money you are willing to lose: account balance, risk percent, stop distance and pip or point value give you units and lots. Forex, gold, indices and futures.
- FeatureTrading Analytics & Edge AnalysisTrading performance analytics that read what your journal recorded: expectancy by setup, session and tag with confidence intervals, an exact R:R simulator on real 1-minute price paths, Sharpe, Sortino, SQN, Kelly, drawdown and Monte Carlo ruin probability. Free.
- GuideTrading statistics that matter — and how each one lies aloneThe handful of numbers that describe a trading record honestly — and how each one lies when read alone. Win rate, expectancy, profit factor, maximum drawdown, Sharpe, Sortino, SQN, Kelly and Monte Carlo, with the sample-size caveat every one of them needs.
- FeatureBacktesting & Market ReplayBacktest a discretionary strategy the honest way: a full TradingView workspace paused at your cursor, no lookahead on any of 16 timeframes, intrabar fills from 1-minute data, trades you place in the moment, and an exact R:R simulator. Free.
- FeatureTrading JournalA free online trading journal for forex, gold, indices, futures and crypto. Log trades in seconds or auto-sync from MetaTrader 5, measure everything in R, tag by setup and session, attach screenshots, and see your year on a calendar. Your data stays yours.
This number, on every trade, automatically.
Sage records the stop at fill, so R, size and prop-firm headroom are computed for you on every journaled trade. Free, no card.
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